We already know that in natural systems of all kinds change happens in big jumps. Systems tend to be resilient to change up to a point, but when pushed to a certain limit, a dramatic change occurs and the system enters a new state; a step change occurs.
Step Change in Perth Inflows
The general public in Australia is quite familiar with step change. The water utility in Western Australia, Water Corporation had always looked at long term average inflows when doing their supply planning. This had always worked well, until their rainfall took two dramatic steps down, with an even more dramatic fall in inflows. The reduction was not gradual…rainfall patterns changed overnight.
Other major capital cities in Australia have had similar experiences, requiring something like 10 billion dollars worth of infrastructure in the form of desalination plants, reuse plants and pipelines to secure water supplies for major cities.
Global climate change promises to follow a similar pattern. It won’t be long until step change is the phrase on everyone’s lips.
Filed under: water resource management Tagged: | climate change, linkedin
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